Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 6.815620 7.540538 8.346948 9.317798 10.464754 11.789176 1.345289e+01
2024-10-13 5.506352 6.413890 7.506483 8.944726 10.829332 13.277839 1.681397e+01
2024-10-20 4.738312 5.695624 6.906476 8.596244 10.974286 14.342559 1.977414e+01
2024-10-27 4.249087 5.229213 6.516329 8.396754 11.201700 15.478984 2.310483e+01
2024-11-03 3.911936 4.909430 6.261393 8.316329 11.544950 16.818135 2.719855e+01
2024-11-10 3.806290 4.882363 6.393849 8.799227 12.821209 19.980621 3.607832e+01
2024-11-17 3.633721 4.739607 6.336526 8.972227 13.610237 22.499729 4.510530e+01
2024-11-24 3.400907 4.487455 6.086966 8.796150 13.744033 23.772257 5.193326e+01
2024-12-01 3.222841 4.300197 5.916183 8.724149 14.048542 25.487156 6.134100e+01
2024-12-08 3.037173 4.087348 5.685566 8.518876 14.054901 26.532849 6.959072e+01
2024-12-15 2.905076 3.946276 5.556218 8.474535 14.373345 28.433234 8.308802e+01
2024-12-22 2.805234 3.847600 5.486188 8.526878 14.901202 31.068192 1.035606e+02
2024-12-29 2.737580 3.804094 5.518777 8.805624 16.061894 36.241686 1.508268e+02
2025-01-05 2.567016 3.588106 5.246591 8.473513 15.772862 37.007203 1.740769e+02
2025-01-12 2.414494 3.392124 4.994151 8.152241 15.451728 37.573783 1.994571e+02
2025-01-19 2.297832 3.247452 4.819826 7.967720 15.434194 39.230209 2.451568e+02
2025-01-26 2.208161 3.141739 4.705886 7.893268 15.684518 42.063937 3.280889e+02
2025-02-02 2.200632 3.171012 4.833718 8.339934 17.437782 52.392452 7.374092e+02
2025-02-09 2.153099 3.129621 4.828987 8.499732 18.444828 60.566396 1.631493e+03
2025-02-16 2.067770 3.018991 4.687563 8.337091 18.453268 63.669903 2.801359e+03
2025-02-23 2.000366 2.935944 4.592623 8.270549 18.751428 68.868110 7.260508e+03
2025-03-02 1.922777 2.831638 4.450859 8.080730 18.615424 71.362342 1.935675e+04
2025-03-09 1.867502 2.763887 4.375242 8.039705 18.969637 77.734854 2.860628e+06